Conflict-ravaged Burma Votes in Broadly Condemned Political Theater.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a vote widely dismissed as a sham, with major political parties banned, numerous figures imprisoned and a significant portion of the country unable to participate because of an ongoing internal conflict.

A Phased Ballot Amid Conflict

The ruling junta is conducting a staggered election nearly half a decade after it seized power in a takeover, which ignited widespread opposition and spiralled into a devastating conflict.

Analysts note the military regime, with China's support, is seeking to legitimise and consolidate its power as it looks for a way out of the costly stalemate.

"The environment does not allow for the practice of the freedoms of freedom of expression, assembly or peaceful assembly," the United Nations' top human rights official Volker Türk said.

Over two hundred people have been prosecuted for interfering with or criticising the polls under a recently enacted legislation which imposes harsh penalties, including the possibility of execution.

Film director Mike Tee, performer Kyaw Win Htut and entertainer Ohn Daing were among the prominent figures convicted under the law, which was passed in July. They were each given a prison sentence of seven years after criticising a film endorsing the elections.

Logistical Nightmare and Coercion

Civilians are "facing pressure from all sides," Mr Türk noted in a statement, adding that resistance forces have issued their own threats asking people to shun the polls.

The military has been fighting on several fronts, against both pro-democracy fighters who reject the coup, as well as ethnic armies which have their own militias. It lost control of large parts of the country in a series of major setbacks, but regained territory this year following sustained aerial bombardment enabled by support from Beijing and Moscow.

All of this and the fact that large parts of the country are still under opposition control presents a massive operational hurdle for holding an election.

A Limited Vote

The ballot is set to take place in three phases over the coming weeks in two hundred and seventy-four of the country's 330 townships, with the rest deemed too unstable. Outcomes are expected by late January.

There is unlikely to be any voting in up to fifty percent of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, some districts will hold elections, making it challenging to predict a possible turnout.

A handful of parties, including the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party, are fielding candidates nationwide, while another 51 parties and independent candidates will compete only at the local levels.

Approximately forty groups, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which achieved decisive wins in 2015 and 2020, have been banned. Suu Kyi and many of the party's senior figures have been imprisoned under charges widely condemned as politically motivated, while the rest are in exile.

Criticism and Rejection

"Through dividing the vote into phases, the junta can change their approach if the results in the first phase do not go their way," noted Htin Kyaw Aye, a spokesman of the watchdog group Spring Sprouts.

Western governments, including the UK and the EU legislature, have dismissed the vote as a sham, while regional bloc Asean has called for negotiations to come before any election.

The Myanmar regime has dismissed criticism of the polls, maintaining that it aims to "restore a multi-party democratic system".

"This vote is being held for Myanmar. It is being held for the citizens of this country. It is not being held for the outside world," a junta spokesman stated at a briefing last week.

Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing warned earlier this week that those who refuse to vote are rejecting "the path to democracy".